A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
