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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It frequently serves as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. However, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or merely the biggest shock.

But the current field is fundamentally different. The pool of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent division winners declining and recent also-rans rising together. During an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this turbulent and thrilling year, he's competing with multiple other outstanding candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right system, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open targets consistently. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But this is not a typical year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a given following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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